Understanding Your Dashboard Scores
Every score on this dashboard represents a signal derived from analyzing how companies communicate risk in their SEC filings. When disclosure language changes — words added, removed, softened, or sharpened — it generates a measurable signal.
There are two distinct scoring dimensions: Disclosure Risk Scores measure raw filing changes, while Signal Scores layer contextual intelligence on top.
Score Ranges
Filing language is consistent with historical norms. No signal — the absence of change is itself informative.
Minor language adjustments. Routine quarterly updates or regulatory boilerplate changes. Worth monitoring.
Meaningful language changes. New risk factors may have been introduced. Warrants active monitoring.
Substantial disclosure shifts. Companies communicating materially different risk postures. Historically precedes notable price movements.
Exceptional filing changes. Fewer than 5% of all scored filings. Historically correlates with major corporate events.
Reading the Delta (Δ)
The delta shown alongside scores represents the point change from the prior period. Delta captures momentum — often more important than the score itself.
Signal performance reflects historical observations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.
How Traders Use These Signals
Disclosure risk scores are forward-looking signals derived from the language companies use in their SEC filings. When a company’s language changes significantly between filings, it often precedes material events. Here’s how institutional traders apply these signals:
Scores above 60 historically precede negative price action within the defined forward window. Institutional desks use these as screening filters for short candidates or portfolio risk reduction triggers. A rising delta confirms the trend is accelerating.
Scores under 25 indicate stable or improving disclosure language. These companies are maintaining consistent communication, a positive signal for long holders. Declining deltas suggest improving transparency and reduced forward risk.
The contextual score enriches the filing signal with additional market intelligence. When both language and context align (e.g., critical language score + negative contextual indicators), the signal strength increases significantly. Divergences—where signals point in different directions—often represent contrarian opportunities.
Important: These signals are analytical tools, not trading recommendations. Always combine with your own research and risk management framework.
Signal Validation & Track Record
Our disclosure risk methodology has been validated across 24,209 SEC filings from 4,745 tickers spanning 30+ years of the U.S. equity universe. The scoring system is stress-tested using Fama-French 5-factor controls with Bonferroni-corrected significance thresholds, ensuring the signals survive rigorous academic scrutiny.