CASE PRECEDENT LIBRARY · VALIDATED SIGNAL HISTORY
VALIDATED CASE STUDIES
Each case below was flagged by our disclosure integrity signal before the market repriced.
INTC2021-61%
ELEPHANT PATTERN · DETECTED 3 YEARS EARLY
Manufacturing delays, competitive collapse. Signal triggered at maximum alarm 3 years before repricing.
ORCL2025-56%
ELEPHANT PATTERN · DRIFT=99 AT $328
Maximum alarm Sept 2025 at peak price. L2 accelerating, L4 bearish. Layoffs confirmed 6 months later at $145.
SNOW2025-46%
ELEPHANT PATTERN · CRO DEPARTURE
Drift=100 May 2025. CRO departed with separation agreement. Stock down 46% from peak.
ABBV2019-13.4%
TRIPLE CONVERGENCE
Multiple disclosure dimensions shifted simultaneously. $63B acquisition deal incoming.
AMAT2024-8.1%
CONCEALMENT PATTERN
U.S. export controls targeting semiconductor equipment sales to China. Company publicly downplayed the risk.
MSFT2026LIVE
ELEPHANT PATTERN · INSIDER SELLING
Active case. Significant insider selling activity detected alongside disclosure stress signals.
METHODOLOGY NOTE
All case studies trace to validated signals in our 23/24 battery. Crown jewel: t=11.11, FF5 alpha=+7.36%, n=858.
COMMUNITY · MEMBER DISCUSSION
MEMBER DISCUSSION BOARD
Analysis threads, signal discussions, and sector debates from our institutional community.
Validated Case Studies8 CASES
INTC-61%
2021 · ELEPHANT
Maximum alarm. Manufacturing delays, competitive collapse. Detected 3 YEARS before repricing.
ORCL-56%
2025 · ELEPHANT
Drift=99 at $328 peak. L2 accelerating, L4 bearish. Layoffs confirmed 6 months later at $145.
SNOW-46%
2025 · ELEPHANT
Drift=100 May 2025. CRO departed with separation agreement. Stock down 46% from signal.
ABBV-13.4%
2019 · TRIPLE CONVERGENCE
Multiple disclosure dimensions shifted simultaneously. $63B acquisition deal incoming.
AMAT-8.1%
2024 · CONCEALMENT
Disclosure stress spiked to 14.6 filing. U.S. export controls. Company publicly downplayed the risk.
AMAT-5.9%
2025 · INSIDER CONTRADICTION
Triple language shift: risk + legal + uncertainty. Insider selling contradicted public narrative.
MSFTLive
2026 · ELEPHANT
Significant insider selling detected against disclosure patterns. Live monitoring active.
MSTRLive
2026 · HIDDEN DISTRESS
Disclosure stress detected beneath surface-level narrative. Live monitoring active.