Signal Track Record

Methodology

BaselineWatch monitors SEC filings for material language changes. When a significant signal is detected:

• The signal direction is logged immediately at detection time
• Filings with high disclosure drift (Δ ≥ 30) predict risk-adjusted underperformance on both 10-K and 10-Q
• Signal validated with Fama-French 5-factor controls and Bonferroni correction (p < 0.00625)
• Outcomes are measured at 30, 60, and 90 calendar days after filing
• All entries are timestamped and immutable once logged

Past performance does not guarantee future results. This track record is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.