Signal DNA
Distress Radar — its full record.
What it does
Ranks listed companies by the likelihood of an adverse event — bankruptcy, performance delisting and related distress — using only information public at the time.
Who built it
BaselineWatch Research. Certified by our research custodian, who is independent of the team that built it.
Sources
SEC filings and corporate event items, mapped to a stable company identity; outcome records for bankruptcies and delistings.
Testing & verification history
3 AUG 2026
Earlier headline figure superseded
A previously quoted AUC of 0.83 could not be reproduced and was retired.
6 NOV 2026
Re-measured point in time on a rebuilt panel
Evaluation rebuilt to include companies that later delisted, so results are not limited to survivors.
6 NOV 2026
Independently certified
Certified by the research custodian. Lead time was not re-measured and is not claimed.
6 NOV 2026
Blank-check companies excluded
An updated scorer that excludes SPACs is in shadow testing before release.
7 NOV 2026
Evaluation saved for replication
All 347,797 company-quarters, the script and checksums are kept permanently, so a buyer can reproduce the figures.
Certified results
| Outcome | Universe | AUC |
|---|---|---|
| Any adverse event | All listed | 0.7366 |
| Any adverse event | Price ≥ $1 | 0.7312 |
| Any adverse event | Liquid names | 0.7152 |
| Bankruptcy | Price ≥ $1 | 0.7571 |
| Performance delisting | Price ≥ $1 | 0.7671 |
What this is not
Not investment advice and not a return forecast. It ranks risk; it does not time events. Methods are described at a level that protects our intellectual property; the full record is available to licensees under NDA.
Access Distress Radar
Institutional licence, partner integration or an individual watchlist.